Every extra samosa bites into India’s GDP: Obesity burden to hit $81.53 bn by 2060

Being overweight isn’t merely a personal challenge—it’s a global economic crisis in the making. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in his recent Mann Ki Baat, didn’t just flag obesity as a health issue but as a looming financial catastrophe for India and the world. 

The economic burden of obesity is rising at an alarming rate, threatening GDP growth, workforce productivity, and healthcare systems worldwide.

In India alone, obesity-related costs were $28.95 billion in 2019, accounting for 1% of GDP. If current trends persist, this burden could triple to $81.53 billion (1.57% of GDP) by 2060 and skyrocket to $838.6 billion (2.5% of GDP), as per Global Obesity Observatory.

The Economic Survey 2023-24 issued a stark warning: “If India needs to reap the gains of its demographic dividend, it is critical that its population’s health parameters transition towards a balanced and diverse diet.”

The problem isn’t confined to India. Globally, obesity-related costs are projected to consume 3.6% of GDP by 2025, with Thailand expected to lose 4.9% of its GDP and the UAE a staggering 11.04% by 2060. 

These losses stem from direct medical expenses, lost productivity, and systemic inefficiencies. In the U.S., obesity costs $260.6 billion annually in medical expenses—double what normal-weight individuals incur. By 2060, global obesity-related healthcare spending is expected to reach $18 trillion, surpassing even the economic toll of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Obesity affects labor markets in multiple ways. Absenteeism costs U.S. employers $26.8 billion annually as obese employees miss three additional sick days per year. Presenteeism, where reduced physical stamina and cognitive efficiency lower work productivity, accounts for a 15-30% decline in efficiency. Disability claims related to obesity-driven musculoskeletal disorders cost the U.S. $31.1 billion annually. In physically demanding sectors like construction and hospitality, productivity losses exceed 5%.

Sources: World Health Organization (WHO), World Obesity Federation​

Beyond productivity losses, obesity directly affects wages and employment. Obese white women earn 11.9% less than their normal-weight counterparts. In client-facing roles, a one-standard deviation increase in body fat reduces wages by 2.7% for women. Hiring discrimination results in 8% lower employment rates for obese workers, costing economies like the U.K. £3.6 billion annually in unrealized human capital. 

Chronic obesity decreases workforce participation by 3.4% in OECD countries, while the U.S. loses $2.6 trillion in federal tax revenue per decade due to obesity-driven unemployment. Childhood obesity lowers educational attainment, reducing lifetime earnings by $19,000–$40,000 per child. By 2060, obesity could shrink Australia’s GDP by 3.49% and Mexico’s by 5.01%.

A sedentary lifestyle and an increasing reliance on ultra-processed foods (UPFs) are fueling the crisis. The Economic Survey 2024-25 has urged action, calling for warning labels on high-sugar, high-salt, and high-fat foods, restricted marketing of junk food (especially to children), the elimination of UPFs from schools, hospitals, and public spaces, and subsidies on healthier foods like millets, fruits, and vegetables. According to the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER), India’s UPF sector grew at a CAGR of 13.37% from 2011 to 2021. 

Household spending data from the Household Consumption Expenditure Survey (HCES) 2022-23 shows that rural households allocate 9.6% of their food budget to processed foods, while urban households spend 10.64%.

Despite these warnings, India still lacks a cohesive national obesity strategy. While policies exist for child nutrition and vulnerable groups, no comprehensive plan addresses obesity across all demographics. In a TOI report, retired scientist Avula Lakshmaiah from the National Institute of Nutrition warned: “Loss of livelihood, opportunity costs, and the emotional toll due to lack of societal support also contribute significantly to this economic burden.”

PM Modi is urging big names to join India’s fight against obesity, recognizing that reversing this trend requires public-private collaboration. Governments worldwide are already taking action. Australia’s sugar tax ($0.40/100g) is expected to reduce obesity prevalence by 2% and generate $500 million annually for prevention programs. The U.S. Diabetes Prevention Program saves $4,300 per participant over 15 years through lifestyle interventions. Bariatric surgery, though expensive ($32,868 per procedure), reduces long-term healthcare use by 29%.