Supercomputer predicts Premier League winner on Christmas Day 2024

Arne Slot’s Liverpool have been the Premier League’s dominant force in 2024/25, but history suggests there’s hope for their primary challengers.

A 6-3 victory at Tottenham means the Reds sit atop the Premier League table at Christmas for the seventh time. Only once have they gone on to win the title. While Manchester City are currently in no position to contend again, that stat will doubtlessly raise a few eyebrows in north and west London.

While Liverpool turn Christmas toppings into titles at a poultry rate of 16.6%, 16 of the 32 Christmas table-toppers have converted. Still, the figures show that the Reds’ current position, as imperious as it is, is far from inevitable come May 2025.

Much of the discourse at this time of year surrounds potential title victors, and City’s demise only adds to the intrigue in 2024. However, this Premier League is proving to be somewhat of a bizarre one and fascinating storylines are emerging from up-and-down the table.

As it stands, we look on course for a couple of surprise European entrants, potentially even a continental debut, and mid-table indifference for members of the so-called ‘Big Six’. The unpredictability does dissipate towards the drop zone with the newly promoted folk struggling to compete, but Wolves’ struggles could ensure there are relegation narratives to be suckered into down the stretch.

Here’s how Opta’s supercomputer is projecting the final 2024/25 Premier League table to look on Christmas Day.

Opta are convinced by Liverpool. They give the Reds an 86% chance of winning their second Premier League title after they extended their advantage over second-place Chelsea to four points at the weekend. They’re six points better off than Arsenal, who Opta rank as Liverpool’s biggest threat, having also played a game fewer than the London rivals.

The Gunners are currently third but have a considerably better chance of winning the league than Enzo Maresca’s Blues. Opta gives Arsenal a 10.3% shot and Chelsea just a 3.1% chance.

Perennial champions Manchester City are seventh at Christmas and without any hope of winning a fifth-straight title. Opta, however, haven’t completely given up on Pep Guardiola’s side. They’re the only team other than those mentioned that boast more than a 0.01% chance of winning the title (0.6%).

The supercomputer backs City to stage a recovery in the second-half of the season and has disagreed with Michael Owen’s assessment, which was impressively made well before their current abhorrent run, that City won’t finish in the top four. Opta gives Guardiola’s men a 43.9% chance of finishing fourth and a 76.4% chance of finishing in the top four.

Opta are more bullish on Aston Villa and Newcastle than they are Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest, but the latter pair could yet end the season with European football secured for next term. Forest are projected to finish seventh and Bournemouth eighth. Coefficients and the domestic cup winners will decide whether eighth is enough for the Cherries to enjoy their first ever taste of continental action.

Tottenham and Manchester United may yet finish in the top half, but both clubs would be left bitterly disappointed with respective ninth- and tenth-place finishes.

London dominates the top of the bottom-half, while Everton look set for a year of comfort above the drop zone. Wolves are 18th on Christmas Day, but Opta is backing new manager Vitor Pereira to guide the West Midlanders to safety. Wolves still have a 52.5% chance of going down, but Leicester (62%), Ipswich (76.9%) and Southampton (97.8%) are all preferred to Pereira’s side. The Saints, who have just appointed Ivan Juric to succeed Russell Martin, have all but been consigned to the second tier. Opta gives them a 77% chance of finishing bottom of the pile when it’s all said and done.

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