Aston Villa boss Unai Emery thinks his side could have blown their chances of earning automatic qualification to the last 16 of the Champions League after losing 1-0 at Monaco.
Villa are now precariously balanced in eighth, propped up by only their superior goal difference, after previously being primed to avoid the play-off knockout stage.
They host Celtic on Wednesday January 29 in their final league phase fixture but Emery believes their top-eight hopes might be over.
“When we are playing games like today, it’s important to get three points because I think we lost the opportunity to get in the top eight,” said Emery.
“Today was the key.”
The two teams were separated by eight places heading into the clash at the Stade Louis II but this was quickly minimised to two spots, either side of the top eight, thanks to Wilfried Singo’s header inside the first 10 minutes.
Tyrone Mings’ unforced error led to a corner being given for the hosts and despite a stunning save from Emiliano Martinez to deny Thilo Kehrer initially, the Argentina goalkeeper could do nothing about the rebound.
His counterpart at the other end, Radoslaw Majecki, also played his part by ensuring the lead remained intact heading into the break by getting down well to his right to tip Ollie Watkins’ only chance of the half around the post.
Not even the introduction of Jhon Duran off the bench in the 56th minute could spark Villa into life, the visitors posed little threat after the restart apart from Matty Cash’s effort which was pulled wide.
For Monaco, it was yet another triumph against an English team on home soil that ignites their chances of automatic progression.
They have now won five of their of last six home games against Premier League opposition, with Villa joining Chelsea. Liverpool, Tottenham and Manchester City on the list of victims.
Emery: When we played two strikers, we didn’t threaten as much
Aston Villa boss Unai Emery:
“Maybe you can be here two days explaining it [the loss]. We played 70 minutes like I want. They had good transitions.
“We were connecting with our two No 10s, but attacking through the middle with passes and we got in their box and created three good chances. When we played with two strikers, we lost our position and we didn’t threaten them as much.”
Villa’s Champions League future hinges on Celtic
Sky Sports Patrick Rowe:
Historic wins versus Young Boys, Bayern Munich, Bologna and RB Leipzig meant Emery’s men had full focus on the top eight but after falling short to Club Brugge and now Monaco, as well as a frustrating 0-0 draw with Juventus, their chances now hinge on the home game against Celtic next week.
Emery had dreams of his side reaching 19 points prior to the latest defeat but admitted 16 could be enough to drag them over the line.
Attention will now quickly turn to how those around them – such as Atletico Madrid, Borussia Dortmund and Bayern Munich – fare, but come next Wednesday, Villa will need to be miles ahead of the levels they displayed on Tuesday evening.
Sunday 26th January 4:00pm
Kick off 4:30pm
They looked off the pace against Monaco, which could be expected after giving their all to come back against Arsenal on Saturday, but they will face a similar task in the coming days.
Sandwiched between this defeat and Brendan Rodgers’ side visiting the ‘Second City’, Villa will host West Ham, live on Sky Sports, in a game which holds an equal amount of importance given the race for the top four in the Premier League.
Games continue to come thick and fast but the opportunity to compete in the last 16 in Europe is not guaranteed.
What happens if Villa don’t make the top eight?
Teams that finish in ninth to 24th enter a round of two-legged play-offs in February, with the winners taking the other eight spots in the last 16.
Those who finish ninth to 16th will be seeded for the play-offs, so will have the second leg at home. Those from 17th to 24th will be unseeded, so have the first leg at home.
Monaco players celebrate Singo’s goal
Does it matter how high Villa finish from ninth to 24th?
The new Champions League format means the team that finishes ninth faces the team in 24th in the play-off round. Tenth plays 23rd, 11th plays 22nd and so on.
So if you just miss out on a top-eight finish, the blow is softened by playing the worst-performing sides that qualified from the league phase. So the higher you finish, the ‘easier’ game you get.
However, if teams such as Real Madrid and Paris Saint-Germain struggle in the league phase, Villa could face top sides in the play-off rounds.