Canadian sports fans might be persuaded to stop jeering the American national anthem. At least for the next 30 days.
The trade war is off. At least for now. But that is of limited solace. And even if the next deadline somehow comes and goes without the resumption of hostilities, it’s not clear when Canadians will again be able to view the United States as a reliable friend or predictable ally.
The resolution, such as it is, came on Monday after Canadian officials agreed to a handful of additional measures to respond to Donald Trump’s stated concerns about fentanyl moving across his country’s northern border — the appointment of a “fentanyl czar,” listing Mexican drug cartels as terrorist entities, and investing $200 million toward gathering intelligence on organized crime.
But much of what the Canadian government is proposing to do to increase security at the border was announced weeks ago — a package of measures costing $1.3 billion revealed in December.
On Saturday, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau acknowledged he had been unable to get U.S. President Donald Trump on the phone since he was inaugurated on Jan. 20. The two leaders then spoke twice on Monday.
If a couple of phone calls and a few additional measures were all that were needed to resolve this dispute, it’s difficult to understand why the U.S. had to come to the brink of a trade war with its closest ally and largest trading partner before a resolution could be found.
Of course, it was always hard to see how the relatively small amount of fentanyl crossing the border could be viewed as a major point of conflict between the two countries — or, for that matter, how it could possibly justify the imposition of tariffs that would raise prices for American consumers and do significant damage to the Canadian economy.
Public Safety Minister David McGuinty tells Power & Politics the government is ‘pleased’ U.S. President Donald Trump has agreed to pause threatened tariffs on Canadian goods but ‘we have more work to do’ to keep them off.
Is it really just about fentanyl?
The director of Trump’s national economic council was sent out on Monday morning to insist this dispute was being “miscovered.”
“What you need to do is go back and read the executive order where President Trump was absolutely, 100 per cent clear that this is not a trade war, this is a drug war,” Kevin Hassett told CNBC. “The Canadians appear to have misunderstood the plain language of the executive order and they’re interpreting it as a trade war.”
It would certainly be embarrassing for everyone involved if this was all one big misunderstanding. But if you are threatening to impose high new tariffs on a country — taxing imports from a country with whom you recently signed a free-trade agreement — you are, ipso facto, initiating a trade war.
The other problem with claiming this is just about fentanyl is that Trump himself keeps giving Canadians reason to doubt that.
Asked in the Oval Office whether Canada could do anything that would pause tariffs, as has happened with Mexico, U.S. President Donald Trump repeated comments on wanting Canada to become the 51st state. Trump was speaking ahead of a planned call with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau at 3 p.m.
In a social media post on Monday morning, Trump complained that American banks weren’t more free to operate in Canada. Later, while signing executive orders in the Oval Office, he complained about his country’s trade deficit with Canada (while inflating the amount) and repeated his interest in this country becoming the 51st state.
A day before signing an executive order to impose the tariffs, Trump said the U.S. was better off when it had higher tariffs on imports. And he again suggested he has more than fentanyl on his mind in another social media post confirming the pause on Monday night.
The tariffs “will be paused for a 30 day period to see whether or not a final Economic deal with Canada can be structured,” Trump wrote.
A “final Economic deal” sounds like something that might involve more than border security — though it also sounds a lot like something Canada and the U.S. already agreed to and signed in 2018.
The obvious and necessary question, then, is how much Canadians can possibly relax? Both now and for the foreseeable future?
How long can this peace last?
American drinks are already making their way back onto the shelves of liquor stores. American drivers won’t have to pay more to travel on the Cobequid Pass in Nova Scotia. And the North American automotive industry presumably won’t grind to a halt in the next week.
But Canadians — citizens, business owners, policy makers, political leaders — can now circle March 4 on their calendars, when the current “pause” is set to expire. Will specific new demands arise before then?
Perhaps the Canadian government will be able to mount an impressive show of force at the border. And maybe the reaction of American markets on Monday even chastened Trump somehow.
But even then, for how long can Canadians assume this relative peace will last?
Humans are conditioned to move on. But the anger Trump inspired this weekend might not be quick to fade. And the last 72 hours have exposed a patriotism and a nationalism that might be harnessed toward some hard thinking and real action toward sorting out how Canada can best move forward in a world where the United States is that much less reliable.
The turn away from our American neighbours and the new desire for made-in-Canada products might come to seem less like a moment in time — a passing fad from the early weeks of 2025 — and more like a portent of this country’s future direction.