In Take-Two’s earnings today, the massive video game publisher behind hits like the Borderlands series and Red Dead Redemption was unsurprisingly coy about Grand Theft Auto VI’s exact release date. Take-Two has resisted giving a specific date to what can likely be called the most anticipated game in the world at the moment, the sequel to Grand Theft Auto V which has sold 210 million units so far, instead only giving the vague but unmoving “Fall” timeline.
It turns out this is a bit of a problem for developers in the industry that are not Take-Two. Sending a game out near Grand Theft Auto VI, or even more perilously, against Grand Theft Auto VI, is likely a sales death sentence for any title. Market attention can sometimes be a zero-sum game and there is little point in trying to combat a title of GTAVI’s size when it has already sucked all the air out of the room. Thus, many publishers are holding their own cards close to their chest so as not to announce any dates that would just have to move to get out of developer Rockstar’s way.
This can make Take-Two’s refusal to commit to a date frustrating for developers who simply wish to know when best to launch a game without the looming danger of GTAVI. Take-Two, which presumably does have a target date in mind, is able to schedule their 2025 releases with relative ease that their competition does not have. Today, they remarked that Borderlands 4 from the newly-acquired Gearbox software would release this year, presumably not against Grand Theft Auto VI.
One reason for caution on Take-Two’s part is the fluid nature of game development. Many of Rockstar’s biggest projects, like 2018’s Red Dead Redemption 2, were delayed almost a full year from their announced date. When speaking to investors about the successor to what became the most profitable piece of media of all time, Take-Two’s leadership has to choose their words carefully. Rockstar likely feels the pressure to make sure Grand Theft Auto VI does not disappoint, which means it will only come out when it is finished, which may not be this calendar year.
For other developers and publishers in the industry, the pain of not knowing is unlikely to be salved anytime soon. Take-Two will need to start marketing the game later this year with a release date and they can only hope that Rockstar can cross that finish line in time. But there is surely some strategy in being able to withhold that information until it is completely necessary.