Best forwards in the Premier League

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Asked to think of the best finisher in the Premier League and the answer would nearly always be Erling Haaland.

The Manchester City striker is having another prolific season and has already netted 11 times in the Premier League, including the opener as Pep Guardiola’s side suffered their fourth successive defeat in all competitions at Brighton at the weekend.

The Norway international is equally adept with his right foot, left foot and in the air and has been a large part of City’s successes over the past couple of seasons.

However, if you analyse the data for this term, you certainly cannot claim Haaland is among the top 10 most deadly players in the Premier League.

So, who ranked above him?

Using Opta data, available on www.theanalyst.com, we have compared players’ number of goals to their xG, not including penalties. 

The greater the difference, the better they have been at scoring the more difficult opportunities.

Surprisingly, Haaland comes in in 38th place. His 11 goals have come about from an xG of 10.30, meaning he has scored 0.7 goals more than expected from the chances he has had.

So, who makes up the top five in the Premier League?

5. Yoane Wissa – 2.53 Goals v xG

Wissa is one of the more underrated players in the Premier League but has emerged as a key part of Thomas Frank’s free-scoring Brentford side.

The DR Congo international netted twice in the Bees’ 3-2 win at home to Bournemouth on Saturday to take his tally for the season from open play to seven, achieved from an xG of just 4.47.

Wissa has now scored 15 non-penalty goals in the Premier League in 2024, second only to Haaland (20).

4. Matheus Cunha – 2.64 Goals v xG

Wolves may be struggling but the Brazilian is having a stand-out season.

His superb long-range strike against Southampton on Saturday enabled Wolves to register their first Premier League win of 2024-25 and continued his impressive individual form.

Cunha has scored five non-penalty goals this season in the top flight, from an xG of 2.36.

3. Chris Wood – 3.28 Goals v xG

The first of two recognised number nines on the list, Wood has excelled in Nottingham Forest’s surprise start to the season.

The New Zealander has netted eight times, including one from the spot, with Nuno Espirito Santo’s men sitting in fifth heading into the international break.

Tho non-penalty goals have come from an xG of 3.72, perfectly demonstrating Wood’s poaching instincts.

2. Liam Delap – 3.6 Goals v xG

Eyebrows were raised when Ipswich handed Manchester City a fee rising to £20million for a player who scored just eight goals on loan at Championship side Hull City last season.

But Delap is already looking a shrewd investment with six goals in 11 games for the Tractor Boys, including what turned out to be the winner in their 2-1 victory at Tottenham on Sunday.

A bustling centre-forward, Delap’s six goals have come about from an xG of just 2.4.

1. Bryan Mbeumo – 3.7 Goals v xG

Mbeumo tops our list but, sometimes, statistics can be misleading!

The Brentford man, who can play anywhere across the front three, has been in blistering form this season with six non-penalty goals, and two from the spot, to take his tally to eight overall from an xG of just 2.3

Remarkable numbers, yes, and the Cameroonian is undoubtedly one of the Premier League’s best players at the minute.

But the most clinical this season? Statistically yes, but in reality, probably not and that’s due to his goal against Ipswich, a last-gasp winner that was undoubtedly a cross that drifted all the way in.

That ‘opportunity’ had an xG of 0.02, skewing the figures.




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