Does being top at Christmas guarantee the Premier League title?

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What does this mean for the season ahead, and how often do teams in these positions remain there when May rolls around? Let’s break it down.

Does Being Top at Christmas Guarantee the Title?

Historically, being top on Christmas Day offers a mixed outlook.

In 16 of the Premier League’s 32 seasons, the team leading the table at this point has gone on to lift the trophy – that’s a 50% success rate.

Liverpool, however, have a less encouraging record. This marks the seventh time they’ve been first on 25 December, but they’ve only managed to convert one of those leads into a title, in the 2019-20 season.

In fact, Liverpool have topped the table at Christmas more than any other English club in history, achieving this feat 21 times and winning the league 11 of those occasions.

Recent history shows the unpredictability of leading at Christmas. Arsenal, for instance, topped the table last season for the fourth time during the Premier League era but failed to secure the title, as they had in their previous three attempts.

By contrast, Chelsea, Manchester City, Blackburn Rovers, and Leicester City have all gone on to win the title every time they led on Christmas Day.

Interestingly, teams outside the top four at Christmas have occasionally surged to claim the title.

This has happened four times, including last season when Manchester City climbed from fifth place, six points behind Arsenal, to claim their fourth consecutive championship.

Who’s in the European Spots?

The current top four comprises Liverpool, Chelsea, Arsenal, and a surprise contender—Nottingham Forest.

Bournemouth, sitting in fifth, might even sneak into the Champions League conversation depending on how other English clubs fare in European competitions.

Aston Villa and Manchester City hold sixth and seventh, respectively, which could be Europa League and Conference League places, depending on the winners of the domestic cups.

It’s worth noting that last season’s Christmas top seven saw significant movement by the end of the campaign. Only West Ham (sixth at the time) dropped out, while Chelsea climbed from 10th to finish in the top seven.

Relegation: Who’s in Trouble?

At the other end of the table, Ipswich, Wolves, and Southampton occupy the relegation zone.

Southampton’s position looks particularly dire, as they are eight points adrift at the bottom. Wolves and Southampton have recently appointed new managers in a bid to turn their fortunes around.

It’s rare for the same three teams in the relegation zone at Christmas to remain there come May, but it does happen.

Last season, Luton, Burnley, and Sheffield United all stayed in the bottom three from Christmas to the final day.

This has only occurred in four other Premier League seasons:

  • 2001-02: Derby, Leicester, Ipswich
  • 2012-13: Wigan, QPR, Reading
  • 2020-21: Fulham, West Brom, Sheffield United

Being bottom at Christmas offers little hope, with only four teams out of 32 escaping relegation in such a scenario. The exceptions include West Bromwich Albion (2004-05), Sunderland (2013-14), Leicester City (2014-15), and Wolves (2022-23).

Interestingly, two clubs in the Premier League era have been in the top 10 at Christmas yet still suffered relegation: Norwich City (seventh in 1994-95) and Blackpool (10th in 2010-11).

For context, the team currently sitting in seventh—Manchester City—is unlikely to follow in those footsteps.

What Lies Ahead?

As the league enters the second half of the season, Liverpool’s chances of converting their Christmas lead into a title remain uncertain given their history, while Southampton face an uphill battle to avoid relegation.

With European football in sight for several teams and a relegation battle heating up, the Premier League promises plenty of drama in the months to come.




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