Summary
The job market remains healthy. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported this morning that the U.S. economy generated 143,000 new jobs in January, below the consensus of 170,000 and our forecast of 160,000 — but the previous two months were revised higher. December’s payrolls were revised higher by 51,000 to 307,000 and November was up by 49,000 to 261,000. January’s result and overall revisions to past results boosted the three-month average to 237,000 from 170,000. The January unemployment rate declined to 4.0%, which ticked below our estimate and the consensus. The number of people unemployed was little changed, but the jobless rate was impacted by annual population adjustments in the Household Survey. Average hourly earnings increased 17 cents month to month and are 4.1% higher year over year (compared to 3.9% in December). The average workweek ticked down to 34.1 hours, which was below our estimate of 34.2 and the consensus of 34.3. Employment increased in healthcare, retail trade, and social assistance. Employment showed little change in construction, manufacturing, wholesale trade, transportation and warehousing, information, financial activities, professional and business services, leisure and hospitality, and other. The closely watched manufacturing sector added 3,000 jobs. After the report, stock futures were little changed and the yield on the 10-year Trea