Newcastle must finally sell their “fantastic servant”

Tuesday night provided Newcastle United supporters with a result they’re going to cherish for a very long time.

Goals from Alexander Isak and then Anthony Gordon either side of half time saw the Magpies beat Arsenal 2-0 in North London in the first leg of their EFL Cup semi-final.

The 6,000 Geordie who packed out the Clock End concluded the night by singing their own unique rendition of “Que Sera, Sera” and, while they have not rubber-stamped their place at Wembley just yet, as noted by Tom Ede on Twitter, of the previous 31 teams who’ve won the first leg of a League Cup semi-final away from home, 29 of them have reached the final, suggesting they have a good chance.

It was a particularly emotional night for one Newcastle player in particular, given that it may well have been his 171st and last appearance for the club.

Newcastle star on his way out

As reported by Fabrizio Romano on Twitter, Newcastle have agreed a deal “in principle” to sell Martin Dúbravka to Saudi Pro League side Al-Shabab.

The White Lions are currently sixth in the Saudi Arabian top-flight and are managed by Turkish legend Fatih Terim, while their squad features familiar faces such as Yannick Carrasco, Giacomo Bonaventura, Wesley Hoedt once of Southampton and former Wolves winger Daniel Podence.

As noted by Simo Frigolé on Twitter, Al-Shabab’s first-choice goalkeeper Kim Seung-gyu has ruptured his ACL for the second time in under a year, doing so during a recent victory over Al-Orobah, hence why they’re in the market this month.

Martin Hardy of the Times hails Dúbravaka as a “fantastic servant” to Newcastle, reporting that the Magpies will receive around £4.5m for his signature, should the deal be finalised.

When the Slovakian shot-stopper arrived in the North East from Sparta Prague for £4.3m in January 2018, he had an immediate impact, a key figure as they avoided relegation.

In 2019/20, he was named Newcastle United Player of the Year and has been a fans’ favourite from day one.

With the Toon Army on the cusp of Wembley, Dúbravka appears destined to never play in a League Cup Final, having been cup-tied for the 2023 final, after playing two games on loan for opponents Manchester United earlier in the competition, meaning, uniquely, despite the fact his team lost that day, he earned a winners’ medal.

Now, he appears set to depart before the Magpies will surely face either Liverpool or Tottenham in March’s final.

Why now is the right time for Dúbravka to depart Tyneside

Newcastle are under pressure to sell players in order to comply with the Premier League’s Profit & Sustainability rules, with Eddie Howe stating “business logic is taking over from football logic…we were forced to [sell players in June]… I think we are still in that position”.

Given that Dúbravka is 35-years-old, and is out of contract in June, he is an obvious player to cash in on.

What makes the timing awkward is the fact the Slovakian has started each of Newcastle’s last seven matches, all wins in which he’s kept five clean sheets, while Nick Pope has been nursing a knee ligament issue suffered at Brentford.

However, the Magpies actually have five senior goalkeepers on their books.

Odysseas Vlachodimos, who’s seen just 45 minutes of action so far, arrived from Nottingham Forest for £20m, with Elliot Anderson going the other way for £30m, as both clubs skirted around PSR breaches.

They also have senior goalkeepers Mark Gillespie and John Ruddy, in case of emergencies, but Vlachodimos, who Chris Waugh and George Caulkin of the Athletic described as the “£20m goalkeeper they didn’t want”, would be the obvious deputy for Pope, but how does Greece’s number one compare to Dúbravka?

As outlined by the data above, since the start of the 2022/23 season, Dúbravka has been a more reliable goalkeeper than Vlachodimos, despite the fact the Greek goalkeeper spent the first of these campaigns with Benfica, winning the Primeira Liga title.

Post-shot expected goals (PSxG) is a metric used to determine how likely a goalkeeper is to save a shot.

However, Vlachodimos is not substantially worse enough that Dúbravka would be a major loss.

After all, we are only talking about who will be Nick Pope’s back-up, and given that Newcastle appear to be stuck with Vlachodimos, they might as well use him more than the second half of an EFL Cup tie against AFC Wimbledon that he’s featured in so far.

It’ll be telling who is donning the gloves for Sunday’s FA Cup tie against Bromley at St James’ Park.