RBI MPC announcements: Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das, in the monetary policy meeting announcements, lowered the estimated GDP growth for 2024-25 to 6.6 per cent, with growth in the Q3 estimated at 6.8 per cent, and Q4 at 7.2 per cent. Growth in the Q1 of next year is estimated to be 6.9 per cent, and Q2 at 7.3, he said. “The risks are evenly balanced,” he added.
In the October, August and June MPC announcements, Das had retained the GDP growth estimate for 2024-25 at 7.2 per cent, with slight variations in the quarterly growths. In the October MPC announcements, Das had estimated GDP for Q3 2024-25 at 7.4 per cent, Q4 at 7.2 per cent, and Q1 of next year at 7.3 per cent, with risks evenly balanced.
GDP of 5.4 per cent in Q2 turned out to be much lower than expected, said Das on Friday, driven by weaknesses in the manufacturing sector. The slowdown bottomed out in the second quarter and since then has recovered driven by festive demand and rural consumption. Das had in the previous MPC announcements estimated Q2 growth to be at 7 per cent.
The MPC assessed the growth to be resilient but suggested close monitoring, said Das. He said central banks were put to the ultimate test of safeguarding their economies in the past year. The events of the last year tested the resilience of the global economy. Amid reshaping of the global economy, India is well positioned to benefit from the emerging trends, he said.
Das said that near-term inflation has somewhat turned adverse since the last monetary committee meeting in October. He raised retail inflation forecast to 4.8 per cent for FY25, from 4.5 per cent earlier.