The M23 rebel group has declared the key city of Goma under its control, signalling a major blow to the Congolese army and a serious escalation in the years-long conflict that has seen hundreds of people killed and millions displaced in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).
Goma’s reported capture on Monday came after M23 – which the United Nations says is backed by neighbouring Rwanda – advanced rapidly on Congolese army positions last week. Throughout the day, a barrage of gunfire and explosions rocked the city, which is the capital of North Kivu province and a regional hub for security and humanitarian efforts.
Hundreds of thousands of residents and previously displaced people fled to neighbouring towns in panic. Social media footage showed huge crowds moving on foot and motorbikes, carrying luggage on their heads and backs.
The crisis, which reignited in 2022, has displaced millions of civilians in the eastern DRC. More than 237,000 people were displaced in January alone, according to a recent report by the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees.
Here’s what you need to know about M23’s ambitions and the latest fighting:
Who are the M23 rebels and who backs them?
M23, or the March 23 Movement, is one of hundreds of armed groups operating in the eastern DRC and seeking to control critical mineral mines. The group is composed of Tutsi fighters and claims to be fighting for the rights of the DRC’s minority Tutsi population. It emerged in 2012 after a group from the armed forces of the DRC (FARDC) broke away, complaining of ill-treatment.
The DRC government and the UN accuse Rwanda under President Paul Kagame of supporting M23 with soldiers and weapons in a bid to control the mineral-rich eastern DRC. Rwanda denies the charge and accuses the DRC of harbouring members of the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda, an anti-Kagame rebel group that was involved in the 1994 Rwandan genocide. The UN estimates there are up to 4,000 Rwandan soldiers in the DRC.
In 2012, M23 first seized Goma, but the Congolese army, supported by a UN force, pushed the rebels back into the eastern hills on the border with Rwanda in 2013.
However, the DRC faced a resurgence of M23 violence in 2022. The group has since advanced on Goma, seizing territory in battles with the Congolese army and two peacekeeping missions: the UN mission to the DRC (MONUSCO) and the South African Development Community (SADC) Mission in the DRC. South African troops, as part of the UN mission, were crucial in the 2013 defeat of M23.
European mercenaries from France, Romania and Belarus also support the Congolese army.
What happened in the lead-up to Monday’s events?
M23 has intensified its offensive on Goma since the beginning of the year, capturing nearby towns like Sake and Minova along the way.
On Friday, Major General Peter Cirimwami, the military governor of North Kivu province, was killed on the front lines.
Civilians from M23-captured areas fled to Goma although they were unsure of their safety there.
“We are going to Goma, but I heard that there are bombs in Goma too, so now we don’t know where to go,” Adele Shimiye told The Associated Press news agency. Others fled to border crossings with Rwanda where immigration officials carefully checked travel documents.
On Saturday, M23 said it would capture Goma and warned the army and peacekeepers to surrender by 3am (01:00 GMT) on Monday.
At a UN Security Council emergency meeting on Sunday, officials condemned the M23 advance and confirmed that 13 peacekeepers were killed from Friday to Saturday. South Africa said nine of its soldiers were killed trying to fend off M23’s advance on Goma while the UN said three Malawian soldiers and one Uruguayan were also killed.
Bintou Keita, the UN’s special representative to the DRC, said at the meeting that nonessential UN staff had begun evacuating but warned that “we are trapped” as M23 declared the airspace over Goma closed and roads to the city were blocked.
Meanwhile, the United States, United Kingdom and France warned their citizens to leave Goma as residents poured out of the city.
How did M23’s reported capture of Goma happen?
On Sunday night about 10:30pm (20:30 GMT), M23 fighters entered Goma amid heavy gunfire and explosions. Residents posted videos on social media showing heavily armed M23 fighters wearing military clothes and patrolling the main streets.
About 100 government soldiers released their weapons to Uruguayan MONUSCO troops on Sunday night while hundreds of European mercenaries are also believed to have surrendered their weapons after M23 threatened to burn them alive, according to reporting by Sky News.
“More than a hundred FARDC soldiers are sheltered in the facilities of the ‘Siempre Presente’ base awaiting the [disarmament, demobilization and reintegration) process,” the Uruguay army said in a statement on X on Sunday.
In a statement on Monday, M23 said it had “liberated” Goma and urged those remaining in the city to “remain calm”. The group also ordered Congolese troops to “hand over” their weapons to MONUSCO and gather at the central stadium.
Goma was largely quiet on Monday, but gunfire rang out in parts of the city, including near the airport, in the city centre and on the border, the Reuters news agency reported. Congolese special forces and government-aligned militia were still engaging M23 rebels on the outskirts of the city, residents said.
Corneille Nangaa – the leader of the Congo River Alliance, which includes the M23 – told Reuters on Monday that his forces were in control of Goma. “They [Congolese army soldiers] have started to surrender, but it takes time,” he said.
Meanwhile, there are reports that rebels looted and attacked infrastructure. The AFP news agency reported a jailbreak at a Goma prison on Monday after which the jail was torched.
“Goma’s capture by the M23 is a massive setback for the DRC authorities,” Vincent Rouget, an analyst at Control Risks, a global security consultancy, told Al Jazeera, adding that the layout and positioning of the city also present challenges.
“You have the volcano on one side, the lake on the other, and it’s in extremely close proximity to the Rwandan border. That means that once you have lost Goma, it’s going to be extremely difficult for the DRC army to recapture the city militarily,” he said.
What have DRC and Rwandan governments said?
Congolese government spokesman Patrick Muyaya, in a statement posted on X on Monday, announced the presence of the Rwandan army in Goma.
“The government continues to work to avoid carnage and loss of human life in view of the manifest intentions of Rwanda,” he said, telling residents to stay home and refrain from carrying out vandalism and looting.
In a video posted on X, he called for the protection of civilians and said the DRC was “in a war situation where the news is changing”.
DRC President Felix Tshisekedi has not yet commented.
Foreign Minister Therese Kayikwamba Wagner said at the UN Security Council meeting on Sunday that Rwandan troops crossing the border into Goma was a “declaration of war” by Rwanda and the DRC was severing all diplomatic ties. Wagner also called on countries to sanction Rwanda.
Rwanda’s UN ambassador, Ernest Rwamucyo, did not confirm or deny the DRC’s claims at the meeting but said the DRC could have averted the crisis if it had “demonstrated a genuine commitment to peace”.
What have other countries said?
Kenyan President William Ruto – chairman of the Eastern African Countries (EAC) regional bloc, to which the DRC and Rwanda belong – called for an emergency meeting of EAC leaders by Tuesday, saying the region had a “critical responsibility in de-escalating violence and facilitating dialogue” between all sides.
Ruto also said he spoke to Tshisekedi and Kagame on Sunday evening and both leaders confirmed attendance at the EAC meeting.
“It’s the best prospect for a ceasefire,” an analyst in Goma who spoke on condition of anonymity told Al Jazeera. “At the moment, the situation is quite dicey because the weapons they’re using are not meant for urban warfare.”
Rouget said that in the lead-up to Monday, it looked like there was a “decisive push” by M23 and its backers to cut Goma off from resupply routes linking it to other Congolese cities, adding: “The timing of the push is probably not coincidental.”
“One thing we had said for a while is that the main backer of M23, according to the UN group of experts – that is, Rwanda – was not going to be willing to risk the massive PR backlash of an operation in Goma. But the change in the administration in the US potentially may have played a role in changing the calculation there and the thinking that, actually, the diplomatic blowback may not be as severe as once feared,” he told Al Jazeera.
At the Security Council meeting, the US called for a ceasefire and urged Rwanda to withdraw support from M23. Acting US Ambassador to the UN Dorothy Shea warned that Washington would “consider all the tools at its disposal” to hold accountable those responsible for sustaining the conflict.
Meanwhile, France has sided with the DRC. “As Goma prepares to fall, France expresses its solidarity with the Democratic Republic of Congo and its territorial integrity. France firmly condemns the offensive,” Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot said on Monday.
What happens next?
All eyes are on Ruto as analysts look to see how the EAC will try to negotiate a ceasefire. Previous ceasefires negotiated by Angola were violated by both sides.
“[Capturing Goma] puts the M23 in a much stronger position to be able to continue its offensive,” Rouget said. “We’re not necessarily at the end of the group’s progression in eastern Congo. We can see further clashes, further progressions into other cities.”
Goma’s capture could also dramatically worsen one of Africa’s longest wars and displace thousands more civilians, analysts said. More than a third of the population of North Kivu is displaced, according to the UN.
Diplomatic tensions between Rwanda and South Africa are also likely to deepen after the death of the peacekeepers last week, the unnamed analyst in Goma told Al Jazeera, adding: “It won’t be business as usual between Rwanda and SADC.”
Already, the two governments have less than warm relations: Assassinations of Rwandan dissidents in South Africa in 2014 were traced to Kigali, leading both sides to temporarily sever diplomatic ties.
Jason Stearns, a researcher on the DRC, said countries like the US can take action to halt Rwanda’s support of M23. “In the past, donors have used that leverage,” Stearns wrote in the Financial Times this week, referring to 2012 when the US and other Western countries withdrew aid to Rwanda and when M23 was subsequently defeated.
But “this time around we seem to be living in a different world, one in which migration, business investments, and national concerns are more important than humanitarianism, and where apathy trumps solidarity,” he wrote.