Matchday 22 of the Premier League season looks like it could be a crucial one.
Leaders Liverpool looked destined to drop points away at Brentford before a stoppage-time double from the under-fire Darwin Nunez inspired a huge 2-0 win, which only became more significant when Arsenal let a two-goal lead of their own disappear against Aston Villa later in the day.
There’s still a long way to go, but here’s how the stats whizzes over at Opta see the Premier League title race unfolding after the latest round of drama.
Arsenal’s draw means Liverpool now sit six points ahead at the top of the standings, with the extra bonus of having a game in hand which they will play away at Everton next month.
There’s no doubt about it, that’s a significant advantage at this point in the season.
That is reflected in the stats, with Opta giving Liverpool a whopping 91.5% of handing Arne Slot the Premier League trophy in his first season at Anfield. No team has a greater chance of finishing in any single position than Liverpool do in first.
Mikel Arteta knows there is a gulf to close if Arsenal are to finally win the title this year. The stats are definitely not on his side, with the Gunners given odds of just 8.2% of wrestling the title away from Liverpool.
It’s not a two-horse race, however. Eight-placed Manchester City are still given a 0.2% chance of completing the most stunning title turnaround in history, while the high-flying Nottingham Forest sit at 0.1%.
Newcastle United and Chelsea, who sit fourth and fifth respectively, are not given any hope of winning the big one.
|
Rank |
Club |
Probability of winning the title |
|---|---|---|
|
1. |
Liverpool |
91.5% |
|
2. |
Arsenal |
8.2% |
|
3. |
Manchester City |
0.2% |
|
4. |
Nottingham Forest |
0.1% |