Boeing(NYSE: BA) faces ongoing challenges in 2025. Still, it also has opportunities to execute on its existing backlog in its commercial aerospace and defense businesses.
Despite the company’s difficulties, it closed the year with a major order from Pegasus Airlines that reiterates the underlying demand for Boeing airplanes. To maximize returns for investors, Boeing needs to execute better starting in 2025.
In that context, here are three things investors need to look out for from the company in 2025.
Turkey-based Pegasus Airlines’ firm order for 100 Boeing 737 MAX airplanes, with the option to order a further 100, highlights the strength of ongoing demand and Boeing’s backlog. As of the end of November, Boeing’s total commercial airplane backlog stood at 6,268, with 4,818 of it in the 737 MAX.
To put that figure into context, earlier this year, Boeing planned to reach a stable rate of 38 deliveries a month on the Boeing 737 MAX by the end of the year. That equates to 456 a year, a rate implying a 10-year backlog on the 737 MAX.
In 2025, Boeing will undoubtedly want to prioritize boosting 737 MAX production. Unfortunately, a combination of self-imposed measures taken to slow production and improve manufacturing quality in light of the Alaska Airlines blowout in early 2024, and industrial action meant Boeing’s delivery rate disappointed in 2024.
Data source: Boeing presentations. Chart by author.
The first step to recovery is reaching the initial target of 38 monthly deliveries on the 737 MAX.
It won’t be easy. After all, Boeing will need to ensure its suppliers align with its delivery rates, not least because the 38-per-month rate is the start of the ramp-up. Fuselage supplier Spirit AeroSystems, a company Boeing intends to acquire in 2025, is struggling financially , and CFM International, the GE Aerospace joint venture that supplies 7373 MAX engines, missed its engine production target in 2024 amid ongoing supply chain difficulties.
As such, hitting the initial target would be a major positive for the stock, and investors should look out for commentary on the matter.
Image source: Boeing.
The following chart indicates the difficulties that Boeing’s defense, space, and security (BDS) segment face.
Data source: Boeing presentations. Chart by author.
Former BDS CEO Ted Colbert left the company in September, after Kelly Ortberg had been appointed Boeing CEO in the summer. The segment’s problems stem from cost pressures and overruns on a collection of fixed-price development programs, including the KC-46 tanker, a refueling aircraft; the MQ-25, an aerial refueling drone; the VC-25B, better known as Air Force One; and the T-7 training aircraft. These represent about 15% of its revenue. It’s also faced cost issues with its fighter and satellite programs, making up 25% of its revenue.
There’s clearly an opportunity for Boeing to do better at BDS, and the earliest step in that recovery comes from growing profit at the 60% of its business that is profitable. The strike delivered a hit to that profitability in the third quarter, but now that the strike is over, BDS should improve profitability in those businesses. Furthermore, Boeing can continue to work through the fixed-price development programs. As such, investors can hope for BDS return to profitability in 2025.
Boeing has more than 480 orders on its widebody 777X , including 205 from Emirates. The problem is that the 777X, an airplane originally planned for delivery in 2020, won’t have its first delivery until 2026.
The delays aren’t just frustrating for airlines, not least as they force them to make fleet amendments. They also result in multibillion-dollar charges at Boeing and tie up cash in inventory before the planes are delivered.
The good news is the end market remains buoyant, with United Airlines Chief Commerical Officer Andrew Nocella noting in mid-October, “The fact is that the production lines for widebody aircraft probably will not keep up with demand over the next three to five years, based on everything we see.”
Here again, there’s an opportunity for Boeing to execute better, and given that expectations are so low, merely staying on track with the estimate for the first delivery rate in 2026 will be a positive for the stock.
Image source: Getty Images.
The end market environment remains favorable in both commercial aerospace and defense. If Boeing will deliver significant value for shareholders, the three factors I’ve laid out here have to be considered. With the labor dispute out of the way and new leadership in place, Boeing is largely a self-help story, but it won’t have a happy ending unless Boeing can ramp up 737 MAX deliveries, return BDS to profitability, and keep the 777X on track.
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Lee Samaha has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Alaska Air Group and GE Aerospace. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The Ultimate Guide to Investing in Boeing for Maximum Returns was originally published by The Motley Fool
