Third of emissions cuts must come from consumers, says UK climate watchdog

A third of the greenhouse gas emissions cuts needed by 2040 must come from consumers, according to the UK government’s climate advisers, who called for an overhaul of home heating systems and warned of higher airfares. 

The report from the Climate Change Committee outlined sweeping changes needed across the economy from 2038 to 2042, saying curbing emissions would make Britain “more resilient, by reducing dependence on volatile international fossil fuel markets”.

“Our analysis shows that there is no need to pitch action on climate change against the economy,” said Piers Forster, interim chair of the CCC, calling for “action on transport, buildings, industry and farming”.

The findings, released on Wednesday, set out a limit for emissions over the five-year period to 2042, putting this at 535 mega tonnes, including emissions from international aviation and shipping. The CCC called the target “ambitious” but “deliverable”.

While the guidance is not legally binding, the government has traditionally followed the CCC when setting the five-year “carbon budgets” required under the Climate Change Act.

Governments have largely focused on decarbonising the energy supply system, but the next steps would directly involve consumers to a much greater extent, the CCC said. 

The seventh carbon budget report said the most “impactful decisions” people could make were switching to heat pumps and electric vehicles, with choices around meat and dairy consumption, as well as flying making a smaller contribution. 

“Households contribute about a third of emissions reductions in 2040 and 72 per cent of that change is from two actions: switching to an electric vehicle and switching to a heat pump” said Emma Pinchbeck, CCC chief executive.

Under its modelling, eight in 10 cars would be electric by 2040, while half of homes would have a heat pump.

Heat pumps were three-to-four times more efficient than gas boilers, the CCC said, which would lead to lower household energy bills so long as existing policy costs were removed from electricity bills. There would be no role for hydrogen in home heating, it noted.

It added that households would need policy support for a one-off cost to make homes suitable for the heating upgrades.

Making changes could save families on average £1,400 a year by 2050 on energy and driving fuel bills, the committee said, adding that the “cost of decarbonising aviation . . . should be reflected in the cost to fly”.

Possible options to further increase the cost of flying included a tax on kerosene or frequent flyer levies.

Under modelling that applies a high value to carbon dioxide emissions from the aviation sector and assumes that green costs are passed on by airlines to consumers, the CCC said this would add £150 to the price of a flight from London to Alicante in Spain and add £300 to the price of a return airfare from London to New York.

Overall, it said the net cost of net zero would be about 0.2 per cent of UK GDP per year on average during the period up to 2050.

Most businesses would not be significantly affected by the shift to net zero in the long term, while there would be new job opportunities in areas such as heat pump installation and green finance, it added.

But it warned of “significant change” for sectors such as oil and gas and some parts of farming.

Sam Hall, director of the Conservative Environment Network, an independent forum for conservatives in the UK, said the latest budget was a “significant shift towards a more pro-market and less prescriptive approach by the CCC”. 

Electrification and cleaner energy was expected to account for 60 per cent of emissions reductions by 2040, with the shift to renewable energy shielding “households and businesses from damaging price shocks”, the CCC said. Half of the UK’s recessions since 1970 were linked to fossil fuel price spikes.

Under its modelling, the total net energy imports fall from 867 TWh in 2025 to 202 TWh in 2050. 

There would also need to be a reduction of livestock numbers by about a quarter by 2040 from 2023, which would reduce methane emissions and free up land for forestry.

The committee said biomass-fuelled power plants with carbon capture equipment attached should play less of a role in emissions cuts than it had previously recommended.

It noted that this emerging technology, known as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), had an “important role to play” in reaching net zero by 2050, but at roughly half the level it had recommended in the sixth carbon budget.

The advice has potentially significant implications for FTSE 250 company Drax, which runs its flagship North Yorkshire power station on biomass, much of it imported from the US.

Drax said the CCC “was clear that the engineered carbon removals from BECCS are essential to delivering the UK’s pathway to net zero”.

Energy secretary Ed Miliband said: “It is clear that the best route to making Britain energy secure, bringing down bills and creating jobs is by embracing the clean energy transition.”

He added that the government’s mission was to do so “in a way that grows our economy and makes working people better off”.