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The UK government would have to pay between £5bn and £10bn to compensate thousands of victims of child sexual abuse if it fully implements the recommendations from Professor Alexis Jay’s 2022 review, according to Whitehall estimates.
The high price tag for compensation helps to explain why Jay’s recommendations were not implemented by the last Conservative government.
Sir Keir Starmer has criticised the Tories for failing to introduce Jay’s proposals and has promised that his Labour government will instigate some of them, including making grooming an aggravating factor in the sentencing of abuse cases.
But the prime minister has so far not endorsed a recommendation from Jay for a payment scheme that would “acknowledge the state’s responsibility to protect children from sexual abuse and the consequent harm experienced over many decades”.
Although she did not estimate the cost of the compensation, figures inside the Labour government — and the previous Tory regime — believe it could mean finding between £5bn and £10bn for payouts for the large number of victims, not just of the grooming gangs scandal, but also of other child abuse scandals.
The publication of Jay’s Independent Inquiry into Child Sexual Abuse (IICSA) in October 2022 was overshadowed by the collapse of Liz Truss’s shortlived Tory administration.
Rishi Sunak’s government promised in May 2023 to set up a “redress scheme for survivors of child sexual abuse”, but ministers said they would first launch an “extensive engagement exercise” before deciding the eligibility, types of redress and application process for the scheme.
The scheme would be open to “any victim of child sexual abuse that took place prior to its establishment” where there was a “clear connection” to state or non-state institutions in England or Wales, the government said at the time.
But Sunak’s administration did not set aside the money to fund the compensation scheme before he called an early general election last summer.
One former Tory official and a Labour figure both said they had been made aware of an initial estimate of close to £7bn for the compensation.
Another person who worked at the Home Office during Sunak’s government said there had been broader estimates of £5bn to £10bn for the cost. “We were pushing for it, but Rishi didn’t want to do it,” they said. “It was blocked.”
Sunak’s office did not immediately respond to a request for comment, but one ally said that Downing Street had in fact pressured the Home Office — led at the time by Suella Braverman — to do more to “engage with Alexis [Jay]” and draw up a delivery plan for her recommendations.
The Sunak ally confirmed the ballpark range of cost estimates but said there was never a “precise figure”.
One veteran from the last government admitted ministers had been more focused on the challenge of how to fund compensation for victims of the infected blood scandal and the Post Office Horizon scandal.
“It was something that we would have done at some point but not immediately, there was no evil plan not to do it,” they said. “The report came out at an unfortunate time and was maybe to some extent forgotten or deprioritised.”
On Wednesday, a Home Office spokesperson said the government was focused on delivering “meaningful change” for victims of abuse.
“We are working at pace to go through the details of all the recommendations from the Independent Inquiry into child sexual abuse, including evaluating costs of implementing them,” they said.
“The home secretary has outlined in parliament commitments to introduce a mandatory duty for those working with children to report sexual abuse and exploitation, to make grooming an aggravating factor to toughen up sentencing, and to improve data collection across forces.”